Tuesday, January 26, 2021


Updated on January 26, 2021 10:09:47 AM EST

Januarys Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Conference Board announced an 89.3 reading that was up from December’s revised 87.1 and higher than forecasts. The increase means more surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations than did last month. Because stronger confidence usually means consumers are willing to spend more, this is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

We also have the 5-year Treasury Note auction taking place today that may slightly influence mortgage rates this afternoon. This sale is not likely to cause a big move in rates, but we could see the broader bond market react enough to cause a small move in mortgage pricing. A strong demand for the securities could help lower rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so if there is a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow brings us an important economic report in the morning and the adjournment of this week’s FOMC meeting. The economic release will be December’s Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. These are also known as big-ticket items and include things such airplanes, appliances and electronics. The data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so a large headline number isnt necessarily a concern. It is expected to show a 0.9% rise in orders. Even though this an important report, a slight variance likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage pricing because of the large swings that are common in the data. A decline would indicate weakness in the manufacturing sector and be good news for mortgage rates.

This years first FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. There still is no chance that Fed Chairman Powell and friends will change key short-term interest rates yet. Traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for changes in the Fed’s future plans, particularly regarding their bond buying program and potential inflation concerns. The meeting will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Powell at 2:30 PM ET but does not include revised economic projections. This is an afternoon event that could have a big impact on the financial and mortgage markets if there are any surprises.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2021